NDX Monthly MA Env Signal Weekly Execution — Strategy by Showa_no_boo
By Showa_no_boo
Performance Metrics
- Author: Showa_no_boo
- Symbol: NASDAQ:NDX
- Timeframe: 1 month
- Win Rate: 84.2%
- Profit Factor: 37.765
Description
NDX Monthly MA Env Signal Weekly ExecutionA trend-following strategy on the Nasdaq-100 that uses monthly envelope bands for entry timing, executed on the weekly chart.How It WorksThe monthly envelope: A 10-month simple moving average of NDX monthly closes defines the centreline. Top and bottom bands sit at ±5% from the median.Entry trigger: When the weekly close crosses above the monthly median (Launch), the strategy goes long. This captures the moment momentum shifts back into alignment with the monthly trend.Exit trigger: A 3% buffer below the bottom band — when the monthly low crosses under bottom × 0.97, the strategy exits (Eject). This buffer avoids noise-exits on shallow dips that barely graze the band, while still catching genuine breakdowns (e.g. it cleanly sidestepped the April 2025 selloff).All execution on the weekly timeframe — the strategy monitors monthly data but fires entries and exits as weekly crossovers, keeping it responsive without repainting.Performance SnapshotMetric ValueTrades 22 (21 closed + 1 open)Win rate 76%Profit factor 25.2Net return +201%Max drawdown −5.1%Avg win / avg loss 7.9:1Why It Works on NDXThe Nasdaq-100 has spent most of its history in a structural uptrend. This strategy stays long during the grind higher and only exits when price materially violates the lower envelope — filtering out routine pullbacks while preserving capital during genuine corrections. The 5% band width and 3% exit buffer were tuned specifically for NDX's monthly volatility profile.UsageChart: Apply to NASDAQ:NDX on the 1M timeframe for the envelope visualisation. Entry/exit signals appear on all timeframes since they reference weekly data.Alert integration: The 🚀 Launch and Eject order labels can be wired to TradingView alerts for notification-only execution.Timeframe note: The strategy uses process_orders_on_close=true — all entries and exits fire on the weekly close, not intra-week.Risk disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This strategy is designed for the NDX's historical behaviour; regime changes (e.g. sustained bear markets) will underperform buy-and-hold. Not financial advice.Release NotesUpdate (June 2026): Added a weekly 200 EMA trend filter. The strategy now only enters long when NDX's weekly close is above the 200 EMA — keeping it out of trades during bear markets and downtrends. The core signal remains a monthly MA envelope crossover (weekly close vs monthly SMA(10)), now gated by the 200 EMA for higher-quality entries.