SuperTrend Regime Confluence — Strategy by DefinedEdge
By DefinedEdge
Performance Metrics
- Author: DefinedEdge
- Symbol: BINANCE:BTCUSDT
- Timeframe: 4 hours
- Profit Factor: 1.80
Description
📊 SUPERTREND REGIME CONFLUENCEA trend-following strategy combining a volatility-adaptive SuperTrend with amarket-regime classifier and a five-factor confluence filter.The three components aren't stacked arbitrarily. Each one fixes a specific,well-known weakness of the others, which is why they're combined into a singletool rather than used separately.🧩 WHY THESE COMPONENTS ARE COMBINEDA standard SuperTrend has two weaknesses:- Fixed ATR multiplier: too tight in volatile markets (premature flips), too wide in quiet trends.- It flips on every crossover regardless of conditions, causing whipsaws in sideways markets.This strategy addresses both:1️⃣ Regime detection adapts the band.An ADX plus ATR-ratio classifier labels each bar Trending, Volatile, or Ranging.In Volatile conditions the multiplier widens (fewer false flips duringexpansion); in Ranging conditions it tightens. The band reacts to conditionsinstead of using one fixed setting.2️⃣ The regime filter removes the worst environment.Entries during the Ranging regime (where trend-following bleeds) can be skippedentirely.3️⃣ The confluence score gates each flip.Rather than trading every SuperTrend flip, each candidate entry is scored 0 to100. Only flips clearing a minimum score are taken.Together: the classifier makes the band adaptive, the regime filter removes thesetting where the signal fails, and the score removes the weakest signals. Eachpiece compensates for a limitation of the SuperTrend it's built on.🧮 THE CONFLUENCE SCORE (rules-based, not machine learning)A plain weighted sum of five factors, each contributing fixed points. It isfully deterministic and documented in the code. No model, no training, no blackbox:- Volume surge (0 to 20): entry-bar volume vs its moving average- Displacement (0 to 25): distance price moved beyond the band, in ATR units- Trend alignment (0 to 20): signal direction vs a longer EMA- Regime quality (0 to 15): more points in a clean Trending regime- Prior distance (0 to 20): how far price held from the band before the flipThe sum (capped at 100) must exceed the Min Signal Score input to trigger entry.🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT AND SIZING- Risk-based sizing: each position is sized so a stop-out risks a fixed percent of equity.- Capped at 90% of equity: no leverage, always a margin buffer (no liquidations).- Selectable stops (ATR, Percent, or SuperTrend flip) and take-profits (Risk:Reward, Percent, or None).- Optional EMA filter, volume filter, entry cooldown, and long/short toggles.- Default risk sits within TradingView's suggested 5 to 10 percent band. Lower it for a more conservative profile.⚙️ DEFAULT SETTINGS (as shown)BTCUSDT, 4H, 6% risk per trade.ATR length 10, base multiplier 3, regime lookback 40, ADX 14, ADX threshold 20.Trend EMA 50, min signal score 65, ATR stop 6x, risk:reward 2.5, cooldown 5 bars.Commission 0.06%, slippage 2 ticks.Backtest shown: Jan 2020 to Sep 2026. Return +824%, max drawdown 24.55%, profitfactor 1.80, win rate 46.4%, 168 trades.⚠️ NOTES ON USEThis is a trend-following system, so it performs best on instruments that trendand expand in volatility. Expect drawdowns and losing streaks during extendedsideways periods, which is inherent to the approach.Results shown are a historical backtest on a single instrument and do notindicate future performance. Test on your own instrument, timeframe, and costassumptions before use. This is not financial advice.